ANC renewal? Dololo

15 December 2025 – What does the ANC’s NGC meeting tell us about the state of the party? Where does the ANC go from here? What do ordinary South Africans think about racial classification and race-based laws? Will Minister Malatsi bring Starlink to SA or will the ANC manage to stop him? Why is a US senator referring to South Africa as an “enemy”? What does the new US National Security Strategy mean for the world – and for South Africa?

ANC renewal? Dololo

The African National Congress (ANC) closed out 2025 at its lowest ebb since 1994. While its unpaid employees protested outside the venue of the party’s National General Council (NGC) meeting in Ekurhuleni last week, delegates in the hall recommitted themselves to their current path while hoping it would lead to a different destination.

The party’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, laid out the stakes in a declaration marked by revolutionary prose, idiosyncratic capitalisation, and riddled with spelling errors: “We understand our struggle to be at a fork road, and thus: We can either Renew or Perish, We can Unite or Face Defeat, We can Return to Serving the People or Betray the NDR.”

The ANC appears to be stuck in a time warp. For years now, its conference resolutions and declarations have been recycling the same pious wishes.

Three years ago, in its Vision 2032 document, the party said: “This is a moment for the renewing of our contract with the people, who look up to the ANC as a trusted vehicle for genuine transformation of society and effective provision of services.” Last week, President Ramaphosa returned to the well, saying: “Rebuilding a culture of integrity and ethics is central to our renewal process as an organisation.”

The hopeful wishes for renewal occur against the backdrop of the Madlanga commission, which is unearthing mounting evidence of links between the ANC, the police and the criminal underworld. As if to underline the gap between wishes and reality, an ANC statement on Friday noted the arrest of an ANC regional secretary and a municipal office-bearer for alleged corruption linked to a municipal tender.

Quo vadis, ANC?

The party is plainly in need of a turnaround strategy but is showing little sign of finding one. At the NGC meeting, Mr Ramaphosa added that the ANC’s National Executive Committee had been mandated “to strengthen the ANC’s capacity to drive progressive policies in the GNU” – in other words, policies such as Black Economic Empowerment, Expropriation without Compensation, the National Health Insurance and others – while at the same time ensuring “the delivery of immediate results on jobs, inclusive growth, tackling poverty, inequality, and fighting crime and corruption.”

These things stand in contradiction to each other. That the party has been unable to square achieving its growth objectives with its “progressive policies” should give it pause for thought. It suggests that a different policy approach might be more effective.

This would include holding underperforming and corrupt officials accountable and choosing to pursue pro-growth policies that would produce the results South Africans consistently tell political parties are their priorities. Above all, these are bread-and-butter issues such as jobs, service delivery, and tackling crime.

Instead, the ANC is seeking to bolster its image by grandstanding in forums like the National Dialogue and the G20 leaders’ summit, and by cocking a snook at the US, one of its largest trade and investment partners. The ANC will use the ongoing diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the United States as a rallying point in 2026 and into the Local Government Elections (LGE).

These measures are unlikely to translate into a massive upswing in electoral support. Through 2026, the CRA will track political polling closely and keep subscribers informed about developments.

BEE unpopular, another survey finds

The South African Reconciliation Barometer, a survey conducted for the Institute of Justice and Reconciliation by polling company Markdata in August, found that most South Africans do not support the ANC’s cornerstone race-based policies.

Of the 2,006 respondents, 54% said Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment policies had “gone far enough”, 76% agreed that hiring decisions and promotions in the workplace should be based on merit, and 67% believed that race categories do more harm than good.

The findings mirror those of other surveys, including by the Institute of Race Relations and the Social Research Foundation. They will reinforce the pressure on the ANC to review the system of race-based laws it has been cultivating and vehemently defending for several decades.

Starlink: A crack in the dam wall

Race-based laws are standing in the way of satellite internet provider Starlink’s entrance into the South African market. The communications minister, Solly Malatsi of the Democratic Alliance (DA), has been working on an equity equivalent investment programme under which Starlink could operate in South Africa without having to find a black empowerment partner as a condition of entry.

Last Friday, Mr Malatsi announced that he had gazetted a final policy direction to the Independent Communications Authority of SA to ensure that the “full scope of economic empowerment” was properly recognised and applied.

Some of the alternatives envisioned as part of such equity equivalent empowerment investments will be “investing in local suppliers, enterprise and skills development, job creation, infrastructure support, research and innovation, digital inclusion initiatives and funding for SMMEs”.

Although Mr Malatsi was at pains to emphasise that the policy direction reinforced regulatory parity with existing service providers, was in line with existing laws and regulations, and did not “weaken transformation”, the ANC reacted with outrage, accusing Mr Malatsi of bypassing Parliament and changing laws through directives rather than through legislative processes.

The ANC’s nettled response shows that it is worried about the risk of a crack in the dam wall: a weakening of core pillars of its system of race-based preferencing that could in time lead to the collapse of the entire edifice. This is a threatening prospect at a time when the party finds itself under considerable electoral strain.

US Senator calls South Africa an “enemy”

During a Senate subcommittee hearing last week, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer referred to South Africa as a “unique problem”, while Republican Senator John Kennedy said South Africa was “our enemy right now” as it was “buddies with all of our enemies” and had been very critical of the United States.

Mr Greer said that when it came to trade, South Africa had a lot of tariff and non-tariff barriers which the government would have to “take care of” if it wanted to benefit from more favourable tariffs from the US. The trouble with the Starlink investment stands as a case in point.

Mr Greer pointed out that the 30% reciprocal tariff currently imposed on South Africa was much higher than those applied to other African countries and showed himself amenable to Mr Kennedy’s suggestion that South Africa should be excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) if the programme was to be renewed.

US sets out its geostrategic view

Last week, the White House published its latest National Security Strategy (NSS), a document every presidential administration is required by Congress to release that outlines Washington’s foreign policy for the next four years.

The 2025 NSS marks a return to the realist approach of the first Trump administration and a departure from the Biden and Obama eras. This is evident in the willingness to re-engage Russia to contain the war in Ukraine and the intent to economically push back against China’s rising dominance while avoiding military confrontation.

The document includes region-specific priorities. In the western hemisphere, Washington seeks to solidify its dominance by preventing outside powers, especially China, from acquiring strategic assets in the region. It urges Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security and maintain military and economic strength to support the US against adversaries of perceived Western values. Asia is framed to influence China’s economic behaviour rather than as a strategic partner.

The document dedicates a mere 212 words out of almost 10,000 to Africa, illustrating the minor importance accorded the region. The Trump administration believes the US has over-prioritised foreign aid and “liberal ideology” over commercial partnerships. The NSS signals a shift toward trade- and investment-focused relationships with a smaller “select” group of African countries that advance US priorities.

South Africa is unlikely to qualify as a select partner due to the ongoing political impasse between the White House and Luthuli House. Washington continues to view Pretoria’s foreign policy as leaning toward China, Russia, and Iran despite its claims of non-alignment. The NSS states that the US will favour “capable, reliable states committed to opening their markets to US goods and services,” but South Africa’s investment rules, particularly Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment, undermine confidence.

This shift risks South African firms losing access to US project finance and supply chain opportunities while competitors on the continent attract new investment. The potential upside is Europe’s growing interest in deeper ties with Africa. South Africa’s favourable relationship with the European Union, amid shared frustration with the US, could help both sides fill the economic gap Washington is vacating.