Farmers' beef with agriculture minister

2 February 2026 — Cuba in Trump’s crosshairs; is SA next? Will SA be included in the one-year AGOA extension? Will Openclaw spur a seminal change in AI? Why did global markets experience a sharp downturn last week?

Farmers' beef with agriculture minister

The current outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is having a snowballing impact on South Africa’s economy and politics. FMD is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, sheep, goats and pigs.

As the chairman of the Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), Theo de Jager, told the CRA’s Chris Hattingh last week, consumers are very likely to see increased milk and beef prices very soon as cattle mortality rises and farmers are forced to incur high costs for prevention, mitigation and treatment.

Surging beef, sausage, and milk prices will over time feed into higher headline inflation. Following the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the South African Reserve Bank governor, Lesetja Kganyago, flagged electricity costs and food inflation — particularly meat prices — as inflation risks. Bucking expectations, the MPC opted to hold interest rates unchanged.

The FMD outbreak has acquired a political dimension. The agriculture minister, John Steenhuisen, is also the leader of the Democratic Alliance, the second-largest party in government. His handling of the crisis has come under fire from civil society, to the point that Saai, Free State Agriculture, and business association Sakeliga sent a formal demand to Mr Steenhuisen.

The three organisations contend that the state failed to implement a workable, lawful, and effective response to the escalating crisis. They demand that the private sector be given greater freedom to respond to the crisis without having to wait for the state. They criticise the failure of the agriculture department and the South African Police Service to control the movement of infected livestock as well as the state’s failure to produce and administer vaccines, domains over which it claims exclusive power.

Mr Steenhuisen’s department pushed back, responding that the “threatened court action could well derail the purchasing and rollout of vaccines while the Saai, Sakeliga and Free State Agriculture case moves through the court process and the department waits to obtain a clear directive from the court in this matter”. Mr Steenhuisen also appointed an industry coordination council to support the country’s efforts to combat the disease.

The ongoing fallout could affect the DA’s prospects in the upcoming local government elections, especially in communities with strong ties to farming. Potentially, it also jeopardises Mr Steenhuisen’s re-election as party leader at the party’s federal congress in April, which up to now seemed virtually assured.

Cuba in Trump’s crosshairs, SA next?

President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order last week declaring the threat posed by Cuba towards the United States (US) a national emergency, citing that country’s support for China, Russia, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

The order echoes criticism previously directed at South Africa by US politicians. For example, a Bill introduced in the House of Representatives by Congressman Ronny Jackson in April 2025 stated: “The South African Government has a history of siding with malign actors, including Hamas, a United States designated Foreign Terrorist Organization and a proxy of the Iranian regime, and continues to pursue closer ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation.”

Under the Executive Order on Cuba, the Secretary of State, along with the Secretary of Commerce, is directed to impose an additional “ad valorem rate of duty” on goods imported into the US that are produced by any other country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.

The island nation, with which South Africa has close comradely ties, is experiencing severe daily blackouts and is facing an energy crisis that could lead to economic collapse and widespread social chaos, having just 15 to 20 days of oil reserves left.

While there are already several bills before Congress targeting South Africa, Mr Trump could sanction South Africa directly by means of an Executive Order before the bills progress any further, along the lines of his order targeting Cuba.

South Africa hosted a naval exercise with China, Russia and Iran two weeks ago. Last week, Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary general, said there was a “cold war” between South Africa and the US, adding that South Africa was “under attack” and announcing a mass national march in defence of South Africa’s sovereignty and against “imperialist aggression” for 21 March in remarks which also directly referenced the Trump administration and the US.

In a further move likely to irritate the US, the South African government last week declared the chargé d’affaires at the Israeli embassy, Ariel Seidman, persona non grata and gave him 72 hours to leave the country. Hours later, Israel — a close ally of the US — expelled South Africa’s ambassador to Palestine, Shaun Edward Byneveldt.

One-year AGOA extension on the cards

The rising tension between South Africa and the US forms the backdrop to progress being made in the US Congress on extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

AGOA, a unilateral trade preferencing deal that allowed duty-free US market access for selected goods from sub-Saharan Africa, lapsed on 30 September 2025. Nearly five pages of a spending package now before Congress — in the 1,500+ page Consolidated Appropriations Act — are dedicated to extending AGOA to 31 December 2026.

Despite a partial US government shutdown currently underway and the possibility that the extension could drag on for some days, the one-year renewal of AGOA is virtually certain. However, it is doubtful that South Africa will be included or that the US will reduce the high tariffs it currently levies on South African imports.

AI gains greater independence

Openclaw (previously Clawdbot) is a new software tool that represents an important shift in how artificial intelligence systems are being built and used. It holds significant risks and opportunities.

Rather than a single chatbot that answers questions and then forgets, Openclaw is a framework for creating AI “agents” that can persist over time. An Openclaw agent can retain memory across sessions, use different AI tools, and initiate actions on its own.

In at least one reported case, an agent independently obtained a speech module, acquired a phone number, and placed a telephone call to its user. Separately, Openclaw agents are now holding conversations with one another on a message board created specifically for them, raising early questions about machine-to-machine interaction without direct human supervision.

While such systems could drive rapid efficiency gains, they could also increase the risks of greater dependency and unexpected consequences. Persistent memory and broad access to tools increase the danger of sensitive data being exposed or misused. Greater autonomy also raises the risk of unintended actions, poor accountability, and systems changing their own behaviour in ways that are hard to predict or control.

The risk is that powerful non-human actors could rapidly emerge, operating faster than our ability to govern them.

Sharp market pullback after a hot rally

Global markets experienced a sharp downturn last week, reversing months of rallies in precious metals and equities. Gold futures plunged up to 12% from a record high above $5,500 per ounce, closing below $5,000. Silver suffered its worst day since 1980, crashing by over 25% from peaks over $120 to around $95 per ounce. Broader metals like platinum, copper, and palladium dropped 15%-30%, erasing much of their 2026 gains.

The drawdowns erased an estimated $3.5 trillion from the value of gold’s above-ground supply and $1.5 trillion from silver, totalling up to $7.4 trillion across precious metals. Stock exchanges also faltered: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined, with AI giants like Microsoft and Nvidia falling amid bubble fears, wiping out trillions in market value.

The unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade appears to have been a key trigger, as the currency surged from 159 to nearly 152 against the dollar, forcing investors to liquidate borrowed positions. Margin calls also appear to have played a significant role in amplifying the drawdowns, with reports of leveraged positions in equities and crypto being unwound to cover metals-related calls, contributing to broader market pressure. Profit-taking after parabolic rallies and month-end volatility amplified the selloff. We expect high levels of volatility in global markets to continue.